Anticipation

Just when my faith had wavered and I had considered other plans for the weekend, my entry has been sorted out and I have ride times. The princess and I are off to our very first sanctioned this weekend at UNH.

My first reaction was relief. Relief that I had not managed to botch things so badly that I would miss out. Turned out that there was some confusion over who I was, since I go by one name but my name in the USEA paperwork is something else. I hadn't thought of that. Live and learn.

Now I have moved on to my second reaction: nervous anticipation. There is definitely a different feel to going to a horse trial, as opposed to a schooling show. I need to go pick up a battery for my watch, for one. Time will count. I also need to pull out all the bells and whistles. Hunt coat, leather gloves, hair nets, the whole thing. I got my new saddle pad today that I ordered as my show pad for jumping. It's black with light blue trim, white cord, and a monogram of a silver tiara for the princess. No one outside of my barn will get it, since her show name is Can't Drive 55, but I like it. A little individuality in my rather conservative show get up.

Saturday will be spent primping and prepping. I need to finish pulling her mane, get her bathed and clipped, and braid her up. My tack needs to all be cleaned and packed, along with the rest of my equipment. It will be an all day show (I don't go on XC until almost 6pm) so I will need to pack food and water in order to survive.

I know I'm looking at a weekend with very little sleep and a lot of stress, but right now, all I feel is that nervous jitter of something exciting coming up. We've worked so hard for this, and I finally feel like we're ready. Just in time, since it's time for us to go.

Paperwork

I've spent quite a bit of time over the last ten months getting my girl all prepped for her very first sanctioned. We've weathered the scary jumping, the resistance in dressage, and even getting her used to having her mane pulled. We've built up a topline, put in the cross-country miles, and turned the former brood mare and pasture potato into a viable eventing prospect.

For my part, I've learned to not duck over fences that won't fall down and to keep my legs under me while doing dressage. Okay, we might still be working on that second part, but it's definitely getting better. We've got the moves, we've got the equipment, and the princess sure has the talent and the look.

The princess showing me what a big girl she's become at the Scarlet Hill Derby Cross

It looks like we're ready for that first sanctioned at UNH next weekend, right? Well, something more challenging then a stomach wrenching coffin might be keeping us home. It's called paperwork.

I'm a hunter princess by training, I'll admit to that. These opening dates and close dates and entry statuses and ride times still confuse me a bit. I like the ride times once I have them, it's getting them that makes things difficult. I've only been in one sanctioned event before this, and I had to enter twice. My first entry was completely wrong, had me in a division that wasn't even being offered. I got a nice e-mail from the show secretary, asking me if I meant to enter their show. I really appreciated them holding my hand a bit and getting things sorted out. Of course, that was a less popular show with no wait list.

This time I entered UNH and ended up on the wait list. I thought I got my entry out in time, but it appears not. I went away on vacation thinking everything had been sorted out, but it's now a week away and my entry is still all messed up. Of all the things to catch me out, it had to be the simple fact that eventing entries are far more complicated than hunter/jumper entries. I don't know what I did wrong, but the princess may be staying home next weekend due to my inability to sort out calendars and paperwork.

I guess we'll have to add sending in entries training to my riding schedule. It's not like you get a lot of cracks at this in a summer. Another opening day is coming up on Tuesday and I'm rather beside myself. I want to go show!

A picture is worth a thousand words

Yesterday I had the princess out for a cross country school. We were doing just about everything you would see on a Beginner Novice course (good thing, since we're going BN on July 10 at our first recognized event). Ditches, up banks, down banks, water. She flew around like this was what she was born to do. We did have two stops, one for a bright red coop that she did not like at all, and the other for a spooky house that I did not ride well. Both times she circled right around and went after them without a question, so I consider that a victory. She just needs more miles. The place we took her to school has a lot more color and variety to their cross country fences than she's seen before, and we were asking her to do some bigger hills and questions, so she definitely proved herself to be an honest and brave young lady.

Exactly ten months before that cross country school, I unloaded a mare with terrible feet and no muscle from a trailer and tucked her into a stall. Even four months ago we couldn't get around a stadium course without scaring people, and had to trot all of our fences. Now? Totally different pony.

Before:


After:


She has the best expression in that picture. Someone seems to be enjoying their job. My hands are getting better, but they're still drifting up a bit.

I'm going to go through major withdrawal this week, since I'm going out on my hiking trip so I won't see her. One of the girls at the barn is going to help keep her in work so she doesn't get bored. I'll have to buy the princess a new Likkit to make it up to her. She loves that thing.

The pony inside

A long time ago, at a stable far, far away, I dreamed of owning a Show Horse. Not a horse that you take to shows, but a Show Horse. I learned to ride at a barn primarily devoted to hunters in the 80's, so my vision of a show horse was tall, dark, and handsome. I wanted a tall, elegant, dark bay gelding. He would have a stall and blankets, because he would need to be kept inside at night and stay warm and clean. He would have an elegant canter that was easy to ride, and would always hit the distance. A Show Horse does not spook at hay bales and does not dump little girls into oxers because they may have peeked down just a little bit. A Show Horse makes people turn their heads when he walks by.

I wanted one.

Of course, like many little girls, I had a pony. A ten hand Welsh pony named Terry that drove me bonkers for years. I fell off that pony more often than any mount since. Combined. He would stop, he would spin, he would duck out. He'd drag me off to eat grass, ignoring the fifty pounds of irate little girl trying to get him to go inside so she could tack up. I chased that pony all over the pony pasture in the pouring rain, shaking a feed bucket and wishing for that beautiful Show Horse.

Of course he was shaping the rider I would be one day. At the time I didn't appreciate it, but a lot of my riding can be attributed back to the little white monster that was my partner on and off for many of those formative years. I didn't appreciate him until the end of our partnership, when I was finally good enough to earn some respect. I still wanted my Show Horse, but in the mean time, I had a pretty darn nice pony, and some nice ribbons to show for it.

Fast forward about twenty-five years.

I now own a Show Horse. Sure, she's a chestnut mare, not a bay gelding, but she qualifies. She lives in a stall and has lots of blankets. She has an elegant canter and does hit most of her distances, so long as I don't screw her up too much. She doesn't spook at hay bales and she doesn't dump me in oxers (yet). And yes, she turns heads when she walks by.

I see the little girls struggling with their ponies in their formative years watching me with my Show Horse and I see the cycle starting again. They want a Show Horse. Some of them want my Show Horse. Fiona has a little fan club of girls that think she's super neat. It's kind of fun to think that some of them are dreaming of a tall, elegant chestnut mare of their very own one day, the way I used to dream of a tall, elegant bay gelding. But there's a secret and I don't know if I should tell them.

They're all ponies. Every. Single. One of them.

"Fiona!" "Fiona, you're on my foot!" "Put it down!" "Get back here!" "Don't even think about it, mare." "Don't you drag me!" "It's a chipmunk, settle down!" "Whoa, damn it!" "The plastic bag will not eat you." "Give me back my whip!" "Those reins are expensive, don't chew them!" "Don't steal his hat!" "Put your hoof down, young lady." "Two strides, not one stride."

And, my favorite:

"What are you . . . spit that out! Don't eat that! Do you even know what it is? Drop it! Drop it . . . I don't even know what that was, and you better not have swallowed it."

How do you tell them that they will always, always be dragged over to the best patch of grass around? That in the end, they're all ponies? I went out hacking with a friend. We were both riding our Show Horses. We both spent a fair bit of the hack convincing our mares to not eat every little thing that went by. Both of our mares made us feel like we were back to riding Shetland ponies that will just ignore that little girl and help themselves to all of that free food.

Maybe that's how the cycle really goes. It starts and ends with the ponies. There's no perfect Show Horse out there, just well trained ponies that happen to be taller, and when you realize that, you can really appreciate your partner's inner pony.

Another day, another horse show

Some of my friends are starting to think that horse shows are just an every day occurrence for me. Every time they turn around, I'm washing saddle pads, clipping, bathing, scrubbing tack, and in general putting hours worth of work into a five minute presentation in the ring. Ten, if there's two phases, 15 if there's three. Of course, the amount of prep work is directly related to the number of phases. An actual horse trial? Probably eight hours or more for those 15 minutes of glory.

Well, hopefully glory.

Trying to explain why I spend this much time and money for a ribbon I could just order online baffles most of those friends and I've given up trying to explain it. You either get it, or you don't. Those that get it are with me at the barn prepping, those that don't have hobbies that are not so completely and utterly soul devouring. I could always take up stamp collecting. Certainly wouldn't have people holding their breath the way they do when I'm on course.

Our show wasn't our best performance. We've focused so much on fixing the stadium that the dressage slipped. We were rushed, and the princess pulled some stunts I've never seen before. She spooked on the way into the ring for out second test, I'm surprised the video didn't catch my laughter. I was extremely amused, but the scores just weren't good. Our stadium was much, much more rideable than she's ever been before. We had two rails, but that's pilot error. I'm burying her too close to the fences. I've been too occupied with avoiding flyers when she charges, I need to ease off and let her take a longer spot. Overall, proud of my girl as always.

Findings

I didn't really think I would find anything significant when I started this project. I figured I'd find no relationship between the number of horses ridden at a trial and horse/rider falls. There are just too many other things going on, like the individual riders, the levels of competition, etc. Lo and behold, I think I actually found something. From my write up:

Summary

The question of how many horses one rider can safely compete with at a horse trial has come up repeatedly within the eventing community. This analysis is an attempt to show some of the trends and relationships that occur when a rider competes with multiple horses.

Three questions were asked:

1. Do riders with more than one horse have more horse falls/rider falls and Did Not Complete (DNC) than riders with just one horse? The answer is no, riders with multiple horses had a smaller percentage of falls and DNCs than those with one horse. This data is skewed, since most amateurs are grouped in one population (one horse) and most professionals are grouped in the other (multiple horses), making the results inconclusive. There is no correlation between horse/rider falls and having two or more horses. However, there is a correlation between the number of horses ridden and falls when there are six or more horses with the data showing a change in the relationship at eight horses entered in a horse trial.

2. Is there a trend between horse falls/rider falls and DNCs when the number of horses ridden increases? There is a trend from one horse ridden to seven horses ridden with decreasing percentages of falls and DNCs. With eight to twelve horses ridden at one horse trial, the results become unstable due to the small population but show a general upward trend. This suggests that there is an effect on DNCs and falls when eight or more horses are being ridden by one person in one trial.

3. What is the percentage of horse falls/rider falls for the riders with the top average number of horses shown in a horse trial? Is there a trend within their own riding as the number of horses shown increases? The results were mixed. Some riders showed increasing numbers of DNCs and falls while others showed no effect. It appears to be individual, with riders that have the appropriate support crew and experience are able to safely handle larger strings of horses. With eight horses or more, it appears to be more likely to have a fall or DNC, and the level of the competition becomes very important.

In conclusion, there is little correlation between rider falls or horse falls and the number of horses being ridden when the rider has seven horses or less. An experienced rider with seven horses at a trial is still less likely to have a DNC or a fall on any one given ride than a less experienced rider with one horse. The experience of the rider and the level of the competition appear to be stronger indicators than the number of horses ridden. However, when there are eight or more horses, there is a relationship between the number of horses and the possibility of a given ride ending in a fall or DNC. These rides account for only 0.4% of the rides in 2010, with only five riders competing with eight or more horses at a horse trial in 2010.

Regulating the number of horses at a trial will most likely not result in a significant change in the overall number of falls. Only 0.4% of the population falls into the area where there is a correlation between falls and the number of horses being ridden. That aside, safety is paramount to the sport, and preventing any horse or rider falls is valuable. Capping the number of horses at seven or eight entered at a horse trial would have minimal effect on the events, as having eight or more horses is already a rare occurrence. This would also set a precedent and would prevent the rare occurrence from becoming more commonplace.

What the heck does all of that mean? It means that if they're riding seven horses or less, they're just as safe or safer than a rider with just one horse. Eight horses or more, there is an increase in the percentage of falls and DNCs, but that is pretty rare. Not even our most prolific pros show up with eight or more horses very often. Should we put a maximum number on horses at a horse trial? Eh, we can, and it's not a bad idea. Seven or eight horses per trial shouldn't put a major dent in anyone's training business. Other than a handful of occasions, no one will even notice. But it is a good idea in terms of stopping a trend before it can even get started.

I'm not surprised that a person can ride seven horses at one show and do it safer than little ol' me and my one horse. Just because I can't get around Rolex once doesn't mean that Phillip Dutton can't do it three times in a day. By the same logic, just because I can't safely show seven horses in one day, that's no reason to believe someone else couldn't. I don't have an army of grooms and working students to help me out, for one. And let's keep in mind, when they have a big string, they're not all going around at the FEI level. A lot of them are green beans working their way up. Skipping around Novice on a new horse isn't going to make a top of their game pro break a sweat.

In the end, pros know what they're doing. They aren't going to risk their bodies more than they have to because that's their business. It's how they pay the bills. I would support a cap of seven or eight horses more to take the pressure off of them. They won't have the pressure to slip one more horse in to get the extra miles, then can point at the USEA and say that it's not possible. It would also be a safety against less experienced pros overreaching. It would have little effect on entries, with only 154 rides being grouped in with a rider competing on a string of eight or more.

Will it solve world hunger and bring world peace? Not even close. There are so few rides in this category that it probably won't even make a dent in the overall statistics, but saving one horse or rider from a fall is still one fall prevented.

The full writeup is in a Word document that refuses to become a Google doc (darn charts and SPSS objects), so it has been loaded to the dear husband's website so that it can be downloaded by anyone that's geeky enough to want to see the details. It's nothing fancy, but it's an objective view of the issue. I have no say in this whatsoever, being a LL rider with no connection to any UL rider. Hopefully it will be of interest to someone.

For science!

This is my mad scientist expression, complete with my evil sidekick

Today is a red letter day for geeky eventing analysts everywhere. Even though I'm pretty sure I'm actually the only one.

I have finished the data entry for my riders with multiple horses project. All 40,000+ rows of data are done, putting every ride in the US in 2010 into one spreadsheet. I have never been so happy to see the end of a list of events. So far I've learned that we have some very creative namers out there. I want to know the story behind the horse named Silent Donut. There has to be a good story behind a name like that. I also liked Dad's Empty Pockets and My Tuition.

Now that I have my database, it's time for the actual data mining to start. The question is whether or not riding multiple horses makes a rider's fall or horse's fall more likely. Of course, after spending months building this database, I'll probably check out some other trends as well. I don't have a lot of data fields, just what's posted on the USEA's official results:

Horse name
Rider name
Dressage score
XC score
Jumping score
Final placing
Number of horses ridden by the rider at the trial
Horse trial name
Level
Area
Month
Year

I want to look at this question of multiple horses a couple of different ways. Some are really simple, some are a bit more complex. I don't think just one view is going to answer the question:

1. Do riders with more than one horse have more horse falls/rider falls and DNCs (did not complete) than riders with just one horse? This is the most literal way of looking at the question, but will probably be skewed due to riders in the lower levels that are just learning the game.

2. Is there a trend between horse falls/rider falls and DNCs when the number of horses ridden increases? This will take out all of the rides where there was just one horse and look at the trend as the number of horses increase. This should give a clear picture of whether or not increasing the number of horses actually has an effect.

3. What is the percentage of horse falls/rider falls for our riders with the highest average number of horses per trial? Is there a trend within their own riding as the number of horses increases? This will probably be the top twenty examples, compared back to the overall average. These are the extreme cases that can show what is actually happening when up to 12 horses are being ridden at a trial by one person.

Does anyone think I'm missing a question or a view? Also, should I use rider names or not? This is all public information to begin with, anyone can go get this, but it feels weird to use actual names after so many years of never, ever leaving identifying information in an analysis.

I'll also do some descriptive statistics, taking a look at what the database shows, but most of it is stuff the USEA publishes already, anyway. I'm already kicking around the idea of adding past years so that I can do year over year trending, but we'll see if I can convince myself to do it. For science!